Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa
NOVEMBER 2017 PREPARED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE (UFS) FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)
Index
Introduction
The Protein Research Foundation (PRF) has as its main objective the replacement of imported protein with domestically produced protein. After many years of investigating numerous alternatives the focus changed mainly to where the largest impact could be made namely soybeans and canola.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met.
To accurately measure this progress various models were developed and used over the years. A new model has been developed.
The new model methodology
Collaboration between the University of Free State Agricultural Economics department, PRF existing APR model and BFAP, created a new successful model that can accurately calculate current protein requirements and project future requirements under various scenarios.
The model considers changes in per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs as projected by BFAP as well as population growth, the quantity of meat, milk and eggs that are predicted to be imported and exported are also considered. Projected future prices of major raw materials are incorporated as well as the availability of raw materials, mainly those that are derived as by-products from various agricultural processing industries.
The genetic improvement of animals has a substantial impact on productivity, therefore changes in animal performance is an important factor that the model incorporates. The model calculates the quantity of feed required as well as raw material breakdown for these feeds.
There are several animals that are not producers of meat, milk and eggs that consume a substantial amount of animal feed including protein. The feed consumption of these animals including the protein materials also needs to be accounted for.
The model has the ability by making use of least cost linear programming considering transport costs of raw materials across various regions of the country to formulate the actual feeds required by all animals in South Africa given the constraints of which quantity of raw materials will be domestically available. The result is an accurate prediction of protein requirements and projection of protein requirements both domestically and imported.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met. The APR model in collaboration with BFAP data is used to calculate these projections.
Results
Current scenario
Based on the current per capita consumption of animal products it is estimated (using the APR Model) that the requirement for animal feed in South Africa is as follows:
Table 1: National animal feed production 2017 Feed type National feed consumption (ton) Dairy 2 150 194 Beef and sheep 3 173 601 Pigs 917 668 Layers 1 163 747 Broilers 3 150 249 Pet foods 335 563 Horses 134 930 Ostriches 106 778 Aquaculture 5 184 Total 11 137 923 In terms of oilcake consumption the largest consume oilcake is still soya oilcake followed by sunflower oilcake.
Table 2: Oilcake usage for 2017 Oilcake type National consumption (ton) Soya oilcake 1 127 098 Sunflower oilcake 350 000 Cotton oilcake 27 866 Canola oilcake 68 000 Palm kernel 33 075 Soya full fat 140 000 Cotton full fat 49 593 Canola full fat 2 740 Total 1 798 372 On the local market, South Africa progressed in terms of substituting imported soya oilcake with local oilcake. Currently South Arica produced 69% of the total requirement in 2017, in 2007 this was only at a 27% level. The projection for 2020 is at 82% and will increase to 87% in 2026.
Table 3: Historical usages of soya oilcake (local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local soya oilcake (ton) Total soya oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 121 140 598 070 20 2002 141 520 616 593 23 2003 120 000 705 352 17 2004 119 280 616 596 19 2005 92 080 740 558 12 2006 210 000 849 678 25 2007 303 280 1 115 280 27 2008 253 200 1 261 791 20 2009 181 600 1 111 172 16 2010 251 840 1 083 640 23 2011 301 600 1 291 069 23 2012 347 760 1 271 341 27 2013 469 360 1 197 978 39 2014 565 280 1 232 687 46 2015 765 287 1 254 120 61 2016 768 800 1 218 001 63 2017 871 913 1 267 098 69 In terms of total oilcake the local share in consumption increase from 37% in 2007 to 72% in 2017. It is projected that the local share will increase to 82% in 2020 and 87% in 2026.
Table 4: Historical usages of Total oilcake (local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local oilcake (ton) Total oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 454 192 1 021 862 44 2002 482 448 1 149 224 42 2003 472 312 1 210 396 39 2004 489 413 1 121 460 44 2005 416 736 1 212 593 34 2006 572 231 1 414 338 40 2007 608 370 1 635 525 37 2008 494 557 1 758 185 28 2009 565 181 1 664 927 34 2010 701 030 1 743 137 49 2011 624 912 1 857 391 34 2012 766 927 1 856 360 41 2013 760 321 1 877 671 40 2014 913 356 1 889 979 48 2015 1 197 604 1 914 330 63 2016 1 238 120 1 965 291 63 2017 1 300 865 1 798 372 72 Growth in requirements for animal products
In order to calculate the consumption figures of the different species it is very important to determine the demand. The demand was calculated by means of using the following macro variables in combination with animal feed conversion ratios growth figures:
- Population growth
- Per capita consumption growth
- Imported animal products
- Exported animal products
Table 5: Projections of feed and oilcake requirements to the year 2020 and 2026 Feed (ton) Oilcake (ton) Soya oilcake (ton) 2017 11 137 923 1 798 372 1 127 098 2020 12 506 010 2 135 339 1 425 515 2026 13 152 948 2 212 549 1 454 144 As explained earlier soya oilcake remains the dominant protein source in South Africa, this dominance has increased over time and will continue to do so. Soya oilcake in 2010 made up 40% of oilcake requirements, this increased to 63% in 2017 and is predicted to increase even further to 67% in 2020 and 68% in 2026.
Poultry feeds make up only 39% of total feed consumed in South Africa, this market share of total feed is predicated to remain constant until 2020. Most oilcake is however used in this sector with a share of 83% of soya oilcake usage currently in this sector expected to remain relatively stable up to the year 2026.
Local soya oilcake production
The increase in local oilcake production from locally produced soybeans will make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient in protein requirements.
Table 6: Local vs imported soya oilcake Local soya oilcake Local soybean Total soya oilcake Local soya % Local (From local soybeans) ton Production (required) ton Requirements ton Production (required) ton self-sufficiency 2017 731 913 914 891 1 127 098 1 408 872 64.9 2020 1 138 666 1 423 332 1 425 515 1 781 893 79.8 2026 1 248 353 1 560 441 1 454 144 1 817 680 85.5 Oilcake requirements in South Africa are estimated at 1 798 372 tons in 2017 versus a local production of 1 300 865 tons locally produced or 72% of requirements (Table 4).
Soya oilcake produced in South Africa in 2017 provided 64.9% of the countries soya oilcake requirements (Table 5). The growth in oilcake consumption decreased mainly due to a lag effect because of the drought but more importantly the outbreak of bird flu, which has decreased a large amount of layer birds and consequently layer feed.
According to the model feed requirements will increase to 13 152 948 tons in 2026 and 12 767 149 tons in 2020 from 11 137 923 tons. Oilcake requirements will increase from 1 798 372 tons to 2 135 339 in 2020 and 2 212 549 tons in 2026. Soya oilcake requirement will be 1 425 515 tons by the year 2020 and 1 454 144 by 2026 (Table 5).
Estimates of soybean production increase by BFAP are 85.5% self-sufficiency by 2026 due because of soybean production increasing to 1,6 million tons. Soybean production by 2026 for 100% self-sufficiency in soybean oilcake requirements is estimated by the APR model to be 1,8 million tons (Table 5).
Figure 1: Growth in self-sufficiency in terms of soya oilcake 
Although beef and sheep combined is the largest consumer of animal feed, the poultry sector plays a major role in oilcake and particularly soya oilcake usage. Growth and sustainability in the poultry industry will play a major role in oilcake requirements.
Figure 2: Specie feed consumption 
Table 7: National animal feed production 2020 and 2026 Feed type National feed consumption 2020 (ton National feed consumption 2026 (ton) Dairy 2 217 087 2 348 752 Beef and sheep 3 826 374 3 940 361 Pigs 970 205 1 105 124 Layers 1 372 875 1 478 202 Broilers 3 483 598 3 460 570 Other 635 870 702 663 Total 12 767 149 13 152 948 Table 8: Oilcake usage projection 2020 and 2026 Oilcake 2020 ton 2026 ton Soya oilcake 1 425 515 1 454 144 Sunflower oilcake 349 882 350 725 Cotton oilcake 15 3 251 Canola oilcake 88 074 125 064 Palm kernel 37 710 12 627 Soya full fat 146 211 174 968 Cotton full fat 84 384 86 731 Canola full fat 3 549 5 040 Total 2 135 339 2 561 503
Conclusion
South African feed consumption decreased drastically in 2017 this was mainly due to the lag effect of the drought but more importantly the outbreak of bird flu within the borders of South Africa. However, given the major increase in production of local soybeans the self-sufficiency increased drastically. In terms of total oilcake consumption, South Africa is at a level of 69% self-sufficient. This is expected to increase to 87% in 2026 indicating the progress South Africa is making in substituting imports.
Table 9: Self-sufficiency of total oilcake and oilcake 2017 2020 2026 Total oilcake 72% 82% 87% Soya oilcake 69% 82% 87%
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