PROJECTIONS OF PROTEIN NEEDS  |  2015

Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa

AUGUST 2015     PREPARED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE (UFS) FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)

Index

  1. Introduction
  2. Current scenario
  3. Projections
  4. Raw material availability
  5. Results
  6. Summary of findings

Based on the current per capita animal product consumption, the feed required for South Africa is 11,67 million tons. Using the predictions in growth in per capita animal product consumption as determined by BFAP and the projected population growth feed requirements will grow to 14,63 million tons in 2024, an annual growth of 2,5%.

Over the same period soya oilcake usage will grow from 1,32 million tons to 1,884 million tons or 8,3%. Total oilcake requirements will increase from 1,94 million tons in 2015 to 2,77 million tons in 2024, a growth of 4,7%.

Currently 61% of protein consumed in South Africa is local, this is expected to increase to 80% by 2024. Soybean meal and full fat soya produced domestically currently makes up 63% of total soya consumption. By the year 2024 this is expected to be 92,3%. Local protein production will need to increase by 14,74% per annum in order to reach self-sufficiency by the year 2024.

  1. Introduction

    One of the main objectives of the Protein Research Foundation is to play a major role in South Africa becoming self-sufficient in protein production. It is therefore imperative that we can monitor the progress that we are currently making as well as project requirements for the future.

    The APR model has been used to determine feed and feed raw material requirements per specie in previous projections, these projections has been upgraded and integrated to establish a new APR model which can also run on a more modern platform using GAMS, as well as a more user friendly interface. This interface is a more sustainable platform and easily facilitates upgrades and improvements. The model is still based on the normal Linear Programming principles as developed by Briedenhann (2001). The new model also incorporates the BFAP model which already includes economic variables such as amongst others: Per Capita, consumption, income growth, exchange rate movements, population growth, price elasticity's.

  2. Current scenario

    The APR model makes use of the per capita consumption of animal products (meat, milk and eggs) as indicated in Table 1. Taking into consideration the amount of animal products imported and exported the number of local animals required to meet demand can be calculated making use of their animal performance, which includes genetic potential, feed conversions, growth potential, egg outputs. The number of breeding animals and their feed consumption required to replenish production stock is considered. Animals that are being fed but not used for human consumption such as pets and horses are also considered.

    Table 1: BFAP per capita consumption forecasts (kg)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Beef 13,55 13,62 14,04 14,23 14,48 14,67 14,89 15,12 15,43 15,61
    Chicken 35,18 36,06 36,99 37,95 39 40,04 41,08 42,15 43,22 44,35
    Lamb 2,53 2,55 2,56 2,56 2,57 2,59 2,6 2,61 2,62 2,64
    Eggs 7,84 8,01 8,16 8,3 8,44 8,58 8,73 8,89 9,04 9,19
    Pork 4,05 4,11 4,14 4,25 4,35 4,48 4,62 4,78 4,92 5,06
    Milk 32,49 32,98 33,41 33,79 34,22 34,67 35,14 35,67 36,18 36,63
    Cheese 1,66 1,73 1,79 1,85 1,91 1,97 2,04 2,11 2,17 2,24
    Butter 0,32 0,32 0,32 0,32 0,33 0,33 0,34 0,35 0,35 0,36

  3. Results

    The main criteria determining the increase in the consumption of animal products in the future is:

    • Population growth
    • Demographics
    • Income Elasticity

    The calculations and output data generated by BFAP with regards to these parameters had been incorporated in the model. The population forecasts as estimated by BFAP are reflected in Table 2.

    Table 2: BFAP population forecasts (million)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Population 54,7 55,2 55,6 56 56,4 56,7 57 57,3 57,7 57,97

    The improvement in genetic potential of animals and their performance influenced feed and raw material requirements significantly and is also considered by the model. Projections on the quantity of animal products imported (Table 3) and exported (Table 4) play an important role in domestic requirements. Projections by BFAP are used in the model to account for this variable.

    Table 3: BFAP imports of products
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    1000 TONS
    Beef 63,8 64,1 64,3 66,4 67,4 67,9 67,6 67,1 66,5 66,9
    Chicken 359,1 393,5 426,1 451,2 475,7 496,1 515,4 535,2 555,6 578,6
    Eggs 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2
    Lamb 19,5 21,0 22,9 21,4 21,3 21,3 20,8 20,3 19,4 21,5
    Pork 20,1 20,0 20,1 20,0 19,8 19,6 19,4 19,4 19,4 19,7
    Fluid milk 10,0 9,8 9,5 8,4 9,2 9,4 9,3 9,1 9,1 9,2
    Cheese 10,5 10,3 10,1 10,3 10,5 10,8 11,0 11,2 11,5 11,8
    Butter 3,9 1,9 1,7 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,1 0,9 0,6
    Beef 22,5 22,5 22,4 22,3 22,2 22,2 22,2 22,2 22,3 22,2
    Chicken 41,2 39,9 39,0 38,5 38,1 37,8 37,7 37,7 37,7 37,7
    Eggs 5,7 5,4 5,3 5,1 5,0 4,9 4,8 4,7 4,6 4,5
    Pork 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,4 7,4 7,3 7,2
    Fluid milk 24,7 26,1 27,3 27,5 27,6 26,6 27,0 27,2 27,2 27,1
    Table 4: BFAP exports of products
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    1000 TONS
    Beef 22,5 22,5 22,4 22,3 22,2 22,2 22,2 22,2 22,3 22,2
    Chicken 41,2 39,9 39 38,5 38,1 37,8 37,7 37,7 37,7 37,7
    Eggs 5,7 5,4 5,3 5,1 5 4,9 4,8 4,7 4,6 4,5
    Pork 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,4 7,4 7,3 7,2
    Fluid milk 24,7 26,1 27,3 27,5 27,6 26,6 27 27,2 27,2 27,1
    Cheese 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2,9
    Butter 2 2 2 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8

  4. Raw material availability

    The availability of domestic raw materials for the use in animal feed needs to be also considered in the modeling. The model makes use of projected raw material availability for the major raw materials considered by BFAP, other raw material availabilities including by-products of manufacturing industries are calculated by the APR making use of industry specific information and accounts for use of projected future production volumes. Data is available for all macro raw materials used in the composition of feed in South Africa, raw materials can also be broken down into categories (Table 5).

    Table 5: Raw material categories
    Byproduct Milling Grains
    Byproduct Wet Milling Amino Acids
    Fishmeal Minerals
    Full fat Oilseeds Non Protein Nitrogen
    Oilcakes Rendering

  5. The animal feed demand calculated per species is according to Table 6. The average year on year growth is 2,5% from 2015 up to 2024, with a total growth of 25% between 2015 and 2024. The total forecasted animal feed increased from 11 673 000 tons in 2015 to 14 635 000 tons in 2024.

    Table 6: Forecasted animal feed demand
    Specie 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    1000 TONS
    Broilers 3 535 3 563 3 595 3 646 3 710 3 772 3 835 3 900 3 972 4 032
    Layers 1 239 1 276 1 309 1 340 1 372 1 401 1 433 1 466 1 500 1 532
    Cattle feedlot 3 126 3 254 3 381 3 505 3 638 3 771 3 911 4 058 4 217 4 368
    Cattle dairy 2 062 2 136 2 178 2 218 2 258 2 296 2 337 2 382 2 430 2 472
    Pigs 882 906 920 954 988 1 026 1 068 1 114 1 158 1 198
    Sheep 256 258 258 263 266 271 275 279 284 284
    Aquaculture 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
    Horses 132 136 139 143 146 150 153 157 161 165
    Ostriches 111 116 122 128 134 141 148 156 163 171
    Pets 326 334 342 351 360 369 378 387 397 407
    Various 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01
    Total 11 673 11 984 12 248 12 553 12 876 13 202 13 544 13 905 14 288 14 635
    YoY Growth 2,66% 2,20% 2,49% 2,57% 2,53% 2,59% 2,67% 2,76% 2,42%

    Table 7 is a reflection of the total oilcake requirement per animal category for the base year 2015. The largest consumer of oilcake is Broilers (54%) followed by Dairy Cattle (17%) and Layers (12%). The largest consumed oilcake is Soya Oilcake (62%) followed by Sunflower Oilcake (21%). A total of 1 928 000 tons of oilcake is consumed in 2015.

    Table 7: Total oilcake requirement per animal category 2015 (1000 tons)
    Row labels Canola
    FF    		 Canola
    OC    		 Cotton
    FF    		 Cotton
    OC    		 Groundnut
    OC    		 Palm Kern Meal Soya
    FF    		 Soya
    HP    		 Sunflower
    HP    		 Grand total
    Aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
    Broiler 2 5 0 0 0,588 0 120 856 57 1041
    Cattle beef 0 0 0 18 0 7 0 0 49 74
    Cattle dairy 0 44 43 40 0 22 0 30 149 328
    Horses 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 11 23
    Layer 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 165 56 224
    Ostriches 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 20
    Pets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 24 87
    Pigs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 48 118
    Sheep 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 5 13
    Grand total 2 68 43 65 0,588 30 120 1199 400 1928

    The increase in animal feed and oilcake requirements from 2015 to 2024 are presented in Table 8. The total Soya oilcake and fullfat consumption increased over the forecasted period from 1 319 000 to 1 884 000. The total growth in protein usage is 43% between 2015 and 2024, this accounts to an annual growth rate of 4%.

    Table 8: Increase in animal feed and oilcake requirements from 2015 to 2024
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    1000 TONS
    Total raw material usage 11 673 11 984 12 248 12 553 12 876 13 202 13 544 13 905 14 288 14 635
    Yoy raw material growth 0,00% 2,66% 2,20% 2,49% 2,57% 2,53% 2,59% 2,67% 2,76% 2,42%
    Total protein usage 1 942 2 027 2 064 2 121 2 184 2 278 2 386 2 517 2 639 2 770
    Raw material
    Canola full fat 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
    Cotton full fat 43 45 47 49 52 54 57 60 63 66
    Soya full fat 120 111 100 94 92 93 93 95 97 101
    Lupins 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
    Canola oilcake 68 82 90 100 108 116 122 128 133 139
    Cotton oilcake 65 134 141 130 156 163 172 180 189 199
    Groundnut oilcake 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Soya oilcake 1 199 1 247 1 324 1 351 1 373 1 437 1 514 1 608 1 692 1 783
    Sunflower HP 400 361 346 343 349 358 371 385 401 417
    Palm kernel meal 30 32 – 35 36 38 40 42 44 47
    Year on year protein growth 0,00% 4,39% 1,82% 2,75% 2,96% 4,34% 4,73% 5,47% 4,85% 4,98%
    Total soya OC + FF usage 1 319 1 357 1 423 1 445 1 465 1 530 1 607 1 703 1 789 1 884

    Table 9 displays the requirement for protein per animal category from 2015 to 2024. The largest consumers of protein are broilers and dairy cattle. The largest growth in oilcake consumption is the cattle industry, which would include dairy and beef. In 2024 broilers consumed 1 189 000 tons of protein. This is an increase of 148 000 tons over the forecasted period.

    Table 9: Requirements for protein per animal category from 2015 to 2024
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Grand
    total
    Aquaculture 1,02 1,05 1,08 1,10 1,13 1,16 1,19 1,22 1,25 1,28 11
    Broiler 1041 1067 1072 1080 1087 1114 1130 1158 1175 1189 11111
    Cattle beef 74 96 106 117 145 171 210 252 282 320 1774
    Cattle dairy 342 353 374 396 407 438 481 521 571 603 4487
    Horses 23 22 23 23 24 24 26 27 27 27 245
    Layer 224 233 237 237 245 250 253 266 284 289 2517
    Ostriches 20 21 22 23 24 24 22 21 20 26 224
    Pets 87 88 90 92 94 99 102 106 109 111 978
    Pigs 118 134 127 139 144 144 148 154 160 193 1460
    Sheep 12,7 12,8 12,1 12,7 12,7 12,6 12,8 10,9 10,9 10,5 112
    Grand total 1942 2027 2064 2121 2184 2278 2386 2517 2639 2770 22920
    Figure 1: Animal protein consumption Total vs Broiler
    Figure 1: Animal protein consumption Total vs Broiler

    Locally produced oilcake as % of total oilcake is reflected in Table 10. In 2015 the local protein accounted for 61% of total protein consumption, the forecasts indicated that this would increase to 80% by 2024. The soya oilcake consumption increased from 59% in 2015 up to 92% in 2024 and is the main contributor in terms of the import reduction.

    Table 10: Locally produced oilcake as%of total oilcake
    Raw material 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Canola full fat 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
    Cotton full fat 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
    Soya full fat 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
    Lupins 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
    Canola oilcake 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
    Cotton oilcake 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Groundnut oilcake 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Soya oilcake 59 68 82 88 90 90 90 92 91 92
    Sunflower oilcake 69 88 89 90 89 87 85 82 79 76
    Palm kernel meal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Local protein as% of total 61 68 78 81 81 81 80 81 80 80
    Figure 2: Total protein vs imported protein
    Figure 2: Total protein vs imported protein

    Percentage growth of local production to satisfy growth in oilcake demand growth is given in Table 11. In order to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency by 2024 the annual growth must be at a 14,74% level.

    Table 11: Percentage growth of local production to satisfy growth in oilcake demand
    Percentage Growth required for local protein production to reach certain targets by 2024
    Projected total protein consumption 2024 Required annual growth rate for local production from 1 190 917 Oilcake quantity Percentage of projected consumption
    Tons % Tons %
    2 770 282 5,69% 1 800 683 65%
    2 770 282 8.27% 2 077 712 75%
    2 770 282 10.85% 2 354 740 85%
    2 770 282 13,44% 2 631 768 95%
    2 770 282 14.74% 2 770 282 100%
    LOCAL GROWTH AT FORECASTED TOTAL PROTEIN GROWTH
    2 770 282 9.63% 2 223 368 80%

  6. Summary of findings

    • Feed demand increased from 11 673 00 tons in 2015 up to 14 635 000 tons (2015-2024).
    • The total oilcake consumption (oilcake and full fat) in 2015 was 1 928 000 tons.
    • Total protein usage increased from 1 942 000 tons up to 2 770 000 tons between 2015 and 2024, this is a growth of 43%.
    • The largest consumer of protein is the broiler industry and the consumption increased by 148 000 tons over the forecasted period.
    • The cattle industry (dairy and beef) illustrated the largest growth in protein consumption.
    • The dependence on imports in terms of protein decreased. In 2015: 61% of the protein usage was locally produced. In 2024 South Africa will produce 80% of the total protein usage, which means that only 20% will be imported.
    • In order to achieve a 100% locally produced level, the local production must increase by 14,74% per annum.

Complete PDF report
14 pages [ ± 371KB ]