Research Report 2017/2018
  1. Disciplines represented on the Board

    1. Animal Feed and Oilseed Crushing Industry

      World Food Production 2017-2018 increased by 3,6% up to 1,07 billion tons. An average growth of 2,5% has been experienced per annum over the last five years, supported by a healthy growth in the production of meat, milk and eggs. Africa has remained the fastest growing feed region achieving 30% growth for the year (from a low base).

      South African feed volumes for 2017-2018 were 11,03 million tons, a decrease of 0,98% from the previous year, while AFMA feed volumes decreased by 0,7% to 6,43 million tons over the same period. Broiler feed at 29% remains the largest component of animal feed produced in South Africa, followed by beef and sheep at 27%, dairy at 20% and layers at 11%.

      Many countries achieved a record soybean crop in 2017-2018, however world soybean output is likely to contract year-on-year to 337 million tons because of a sharp drop in Argentina production due to unfavourable weather. Global soybean consumption is expected to expand, dropping global carryover stocks. If Brazil and Argentina have favourable weather conditions in 2018-2019, global production can rebound. The increase in production is likely to be offset by an expected increase in global consumption to 358 million tons. The greater demand for Brazilian soybeans from China should stimulate production.

      Due to a low crush volume of 890 000 tons domestically, a high carry over stock of 330 535 tons resulted at the end of February 2018. The lower than expected crush was due to a lag in some major end users in the soybean market making the change from imported Argentina soybean meal to local production. The uptake of local soybean meal was further influenced by the import of 70 000 tons of soybean meal imports from Zambia.

      Soybean production increased further in 2018-2019 to 1,55 million tons. Despite demand for local soybean meal picking up, the labour, technical and mechanical problems at some major soybean crushers temporarily reduced supply of local soybean meal and increasing imports is likely to affect the average crush volumes and result in an estimated carry over stock of 657 235 tons. Predictions are that 760 000 tons local soybean meal will be consumed in 2018-2019 compared to 745 000 tons in 2017-2018. The 2018-2019 soybean consumption is estimated at 1,2 million tons, with 83% allocated for processing to oilcake and oil, this will be 11% higher than volumes processed in the previous season.

      Sunflower oilcake exports from the three major producing countries namely Russia, Ukraine and Argentina have dropped nearly 20% year-on-year, mainly due to strong demand from Russia and China.

      Locally, low carry over stock of sunflower seed at February 2018 (102 000 tons) has supported sunflower seed prices. There was a strong demand for sunflower oilcake in South Africa, due to the rising prices of soybean meal. Sunflower seed consumption is forecast at 845 000 tons for 2018-2019, down by 5% from the previous year.