Summary: 2024 Income & Cost Budgets

Figures 4.1 provides a summary of the gross margin performance of dryland crops over the period from 2018 (adjusted to account for actual yields and crop prices, 2023 using preliminary results) to 2025 (2024 and 2025 are projected). It is important to note that the gross margins only consider direct costs and exclude overhead costs, and that the presented gross margins will differ based on the timing when producers have purchased agricultural inputs (fertilisers, fuel and chemicals) and when marketing takes place.

Winter dryland crop profitability has declined since the high margins in 2021. 2023 was a challenging season with high input costs and volatile weather. Wheat and canola gross margins remain above 2019 levels, with canola outperforming wheat, but barley dropping to 2019 profitability levels.

Assuming trend yields and quality, wheat and barley's gross margins are expected to recover in 2024, but remain below 2020 to 2022 gross margin levels. Canola margins are projected to decline in 2024, underpinned by the consolidation in vegetable oil markets.