Final area planted and crop production figures of commercial maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2023
At a meeting held on 8 February 2024, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2023.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) and the telephonic survey conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during November 2023, the size of the commercial maize crop is now 16,430 million tons, which is 0,21% or 34 775 tons more than the final crop estimate figure of 16,395 million tons. For white maize, the recalculated crop size is 8,505 million tons, which is 0,06% or 5 035 tons more than the final crop estimate figure, and for yellow maize the recalculated crop size is 7,925 million tons, which is 0,38% or 29 740 tons more than the final crop estimate figure.
In the case of the commercial sunflower seed crop, the final calculated crop figure is 720 000 tons, which is 0,57% or 4 110 tons less than the final crop estimate figure of 724 110 tons. The soybeans crop is 2,770 million tons (up by 0,53% or 14 700 tons), whilst the final groundnuts crop is 53 000 tons, which is 340 tons or 0,65% more than the final crop estimate figure. The sorghum crop also remained unchanged from the final crop estimate figure of 94 360 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2023 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
| Crop | Area planted | Final crop | CEC area planted | CEC final estimate ¹ | Final crop vs Final estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2023 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | ||
| Ha | Tons | Ha | Tons | % | |
| (A) | (B) | (C) | (D) | (B) ÷ (D) | |
| White maize | 1 521 300 | 8 505 000 | 1 521 300 | 8 499 965 | +0.06 |
| Yellow maize | 1 064 800 | 7 925 000 | 1 064 800 | 7 895 260 | +0.38 |
| Total Maize | 2 586 100 | 16 430 000 | 2 586 100 | 16 395 225 | +0.21 |
| Sunflower seed | 555 700 | 720 000 | 555 700 | 724 110 | -0.57 |
| Soybeans | 1 148 300 | 2 770 000 | 1 148 300 | 2 755 300 | +0.53 |
| Groundnuts | 31 300 | 53 000 | 31 300 | 52 660 | +0.65 |
| Sorghum | 34 000 | 94 360 | 34 000 | 94 360 | — |
¹ As estimated by the CEC on 28 November 2023
| Crop | Total | Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹ | Projected deliveries ² | On-farm for own use / direct sales, seed, etc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2023 - Dec 2023 | Jan 2024 - Feb 2024 | 2022 | ||
| Tons | Tons | Tons | Tons | |
| White maize | 8 505 000 | 8 112 052 | 177 948 | 215 000 |
| Yellow maize | 7 925 000 | 7 325 879 | 169 121 | 645 000 |
| Total maize | 16 430 000 | 15 437 931 | 347 069 | 645 000 |
| Sunflower seed | 720 000 | 715 916 | 4 084 | 0 |
| Soybeans | 2 770 000 | 2 698 129 | 22 871 | 49 000 |
| Groundnuts | 53 000 | 52 019 | 631 | 350 |
| Sorghum | 94 360 | 81 059 | 2 941 | 10 360 |
¹ SAGIS producer deliveries relates to the current crop.
² Projected deliveries for maize, sunflower seed and soybeans are based on the historic trend of producer deliveries (as recorded by SAGIS) for the month of February. With regard to sorghum and groundnuts, projected deliveries are based on the historic trend of producer deliveries for the month of January and February.